RGS-IBG Annual International Conference 2018

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217 Automated driving and its effects on urban, economic and mental landscapes – blessing or threat to the idea of the livable city?
Convenor(s) Kerstin Stark (German Aerospace Center, Germany)
Viktoriya Kolarova (German Aerospace Center, Germany)
Anika Lobig (German Aerospace Center, Germany)
Chair(s) Kerstin Stark (German Aerospace Center, Germany)
Timetable Thursday 30 August 2018, Session 3 (14:40 - 16:20)
Room Bute Building - Lecture Theatre 0.53
Session abstract Automated driving is expected to radically change the mobility of persons and goods and will have impacts on urban designs and spatial planning as well as residential selection and location decisions of retailers. Regarding the increasingly accepted ideal of the livable city as being compact, walkable and bikeable, automated driving may have ambivalent effects. It may increase road safety especially for cyclists and pedestrians due to technical superiority. Self-driving vehicles for both, passenger and commercial transport, may reduce the volume of traffic, due to the more efficient use of road capacity as well as due to decreasing levels of vehicle ownership in favor of sharing. It may enable the re-utilization of road and parking spaces for the sake of public spaces and new solutions for last mile logistics. Moreover, automated driving at least in combination with electric-mobility may help to overcome current challenges in urban transport like congestion, emissions and noise. By contrast, automated driving bears risks for the livable city. Especially in the transition period, separating and fencing the automated vehicles might be a viable solution resulting in an even more car-oriented environment. Motorized traffic may increase further while the occupancy rate decreases due to empty trips. Further, automated driving may potentially reduce the value of travel time savings when people can take their hands off of the steering wheel and undertake other activities while travelling. This may influence residential selection strategies and lead to new movements of urban sprawl.
It is not clear if und when fully automated vehicles will stand by as regular means of transportation. However, a growing body of research is underway to investigate the topic of automated driving. Yet, while there is a clear focus on technical aspects and feasibility, matters of acceptance and effects on a societal level are underrepresented. Therefore, this session offers a sociotechnical framing of the topic and will highlight the interactions between automated driving and changing spatial, economic and 'mental' landscapes.
Contact the conference organisers to request a change to session or paper details: ac2018@rgs.org
Impact analysis of automated and connected driving in passenger and freight transport
Viktoriya Kolarova (German Aerospace Center, Germany)
Anika Lobig (German Aerospace Center, Germany)
Kerstin Stark (German Aerospace Center, Germany)
Due to the rapid technology development and digitalization trends road vehicles are becoming more and more technologically advanced with a continuing trend toward fully automated driving. Experts expect that automation might improve the individual mobility, the traffic system and on long term also lead to more efficient land use. At the same time there are still risks and challenges related to the implementation of the technology including potential conflicts between individual and societal goals. Understanding potential impacts of the technology becomes more and more relevant in the light of urbanization trends, demographical changes and environmental challenges. Therefore, insights on chances and risks of automated driving are at this point of history of great importance in order to ensure unfolding the potential of the technology in the future.

The aim of the study presented in this paper is to analyse potential impacts of automated driving in passenger and freight transport. The study addresses different impact areas including individual mobility and mode choices, traffic system and transportation market as well as land use and infrastructure. The impact analysis is based on a structured literature review, user surveys and workshops as well as interviews with different stakeholder groups from the ecosystem of the technology. The study results summarized in this contribution represent a comprehensive overview on the potential changes in the selected impact areas resulting from the implementation of the technology and discuss potentials and challenges of automated driving.
Changes in Distance Perception and Mobility Patterns triggered by the Introduction of Automated Vehicles into Urban Landscapes
Philip Schafer (Korea University, South Korea)
Myongjin Hwang (Korea University, South Korea)
Conrad Brubacher (Korea University, South Korea)
The presentation develops a research model and tests the theory of `localized mobility´, a model that conceptualizes the change in mental landscapes of mobility . Automated driving is identified as a trigger that will change mobility constructions, environment and mental (urban) landscapes, e.g. altering the perception of distance regarded as necessary to travel in order to fulfil needs in daily life.
Using data from social media, sentiment analysis is regarded as a promising method to identify mental structures connected to automated driving. Utterances of needs, concerns, goals etc. voiced in connection to automated driving can be regarded as emerging motives that will inform future mobility activities; activities being a form of stabilized problem-solving pattern (following the ideas of Nicolai Leontiev). Analysing these patterns will provide for valuable estimations of how people will move, once automated driving has become a readily available option. Factors regarded to possibly lead to fundamental changes in mental landscapes - by informing the motives of movement - are identified as security concerns, questions of comfort (quality of life), value of community, economic considerations (ways of creating and sustaining livelihoods) and perceived environmental impacts. The concerns, expectations, perceived risks etc. voiced in connection to automated driving will be identified, standardized and structured for further analysis.
This further analysis is conducted in form of a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), comparing outcomes of changing mental landscapes in 5 locations. It is argued that e.g. major infrastructural changes are the result of changing mindsets (of a `zeitgeist´). If a society decides to change its built environment some form of consensus has to be reached, which seeps into the political discourse, legitimating decisions such as changing infrastructures, as the immobile expression of mobility constructions. These changes are interpreted as an expression of a society´s flexibility and therefore as the capacity to change mobility constructions and adapt the built environment in the face of technical innovations, such as automated driving. The analysed locations are identified by geo targeting utterances, respectively by linking mentions of them to them. The locations compared are South Korea (Seoul), Germany (Berlin), France (Paris), the United States (Los Angeles) and the United Kingdom (London).
The factors possibly leading to changing mental landscapes are compared with respect to their influence on the individual construction of mobilities in the investigated locations; namely to the distances perceived as necessary to bridge in order to meet the needs in daily life. The concept of `localized mobility´ argues that mobilities are constructed in a feedback loop with e.g. technological innovations informing a societal reaction, which in turn informs the adaptation of the original innovation respectively of its proposed usage patterns. Following this idea `localized mobility´ argues that – opposed to the concern of automated driving leading to longer distances being travelled – mobility constructions will emphasize the local level to a greater extent. The richness of information derived from automated driving - in an environment being increasingly influenced by the `internet of things´ - will inform societal reactions (e.g. targeting economic rationales), which in turn inform the motives of movement.
By matching motives (analysed based on data derived from social media) and a society´s flexibility and adaptive capacities (analysed in a QCA) it can be estimated if the predictions of `localized mobility´ will prove to shape mental landscapes and lead to shorter distances travelled, once automated driving is a valid mobility option.
Automated busses to mobilize a suburb
Ditte Bendix Lanng (Aalborg University, Denmark)
Søren Risdal Borg (Aalborg University, Denmark)
In 2018, an automated bus will be implemented in the suburb of Aalborg East, Denmark. The bus will run a 2.1 km long test path on a central cycle- and footpath. The implementation is one outcome of an extensive urban transformation process of the functionalist suburb, led by Aalborg Municipality and social housing organizations. The test embeds three visions:
First, the bus shall help mobilize citizens and users, internally in the district and between the district and the rest of Aalborg. It shall support aspirations to create a more cohesive district where increased mobility is a tool to prevent segregation and strengthen social capital.
Second, the test path is a key urban space in the suburban structure. The bus reverses the functionalist logic of traffic segregation, and the transformation of the path and its near surroundings is anticipated to increase ‘livability’.
Third, applying innovative technology is considered a lever to boost the image of the district. The driverless bus is anticipated to create positive attention and publicity about the neighborhood, which tend to be associated with insecurity and other social housing challenges.
This paper is the first early step to analyze the accomplishment of these visions. Based on an ongoing qualitative evaluation of the effects of the implementation, we focus on the assemblage of people, city and technology in analyzing how the new infrastructure will become part of the existing urban area and everyday lives in the suburb. The paper presents initiating findings and invites a discussion about the research perspectives.
The Potential of automated Driving to close the Gender Gap of sustainable Mobility
Ines Kawgan-Kagan (German Aerospace Center, Germany)
Carsharing with battery electric vehicles is a promising sustainable urban mobility concept. Analyzing the current user of such services reveal that there is a gender gap in sustainable mobility. Early adopters of carsharing with battery electric vehicles are a homogenous group consisting of mostly men with an academic background, full-time employment and a high income. Striking is the high share gender imbalance. Gender has a great impact on daily mobility: Not just that travel patterns in the day-to day life differ greatly between women and men, but also do differences in socialization have a high impact on mode choice.
This presentation will connect gender differences and urban mobility and answers the question of how autonomous driving can help to overcome the gender mobility gap. It connects the results of an analysis of a representative sample of 2400 respondents from four major cities in Germany with qualitative interviews and GPS tracking of five women from Berlin, Germany. Besides socio-demographic, economic, and mobility related factors, attitudes towards transport modes and the preferences for e-carsharing services is analysed to shed light on gender differences.
The results show that, although, women are more concerned about environmental issues regarding mobility, they show a lower affinity towards innovation and technologies of women compared to men. In addition, expectations of and experiences with carsharing with battery electric vehicles are shaped by factors because of gender typical tasks and lead to a lower acceptance of such services. Long distances to vehicles and active driving in urban areas are some of the problem named by respondent. Both issues can be addressed with automated vehicles.
In conclusion, autonomous driving can overcome the main gender-based hurdles in carsharing services with electric vehicles, which currently categorially exclude many women.
Impacts of automated vehicles on land use: results of existing modelling studies
Aggelos Soteropoulos (Technical University Wien, Austria)
Martin Berger (Technical University Wien, Austria)
Looking back in history, the development of settlements and cities has always been closely linked to transport and the development of technological mobility innovations. Whereas until the middle of the 19th century journeys were almost entirely on foot, the implementation of the rail and the car reshaped transport and settlement development. Land use and transport are interdependent and form an interaction – linked with the key factor of accessibility – which is embedded in political, economic and social processes.
The new technological mobility innovation of automated driving, which seems no longer just fantasy or fiction, could completely change transport services and mobility in the coming years and decades. Depending on the use case, the existing transport services could be either complemented or replaced. For example, last-mile concepts with which users can be driven until the front door are conceivable. Thereby, especially accessibility and transport demand are affected, which initially has an impact on everyday mobility, such as the choice of means of transport. Later, the new services could also change the location choice of businesses, private households and public institutions – and hence the urban and settlement structure.
This paper focusses on a comprehensive review of the results of existing modelling studies on spatial effects of automated driving. These studies, mainly using integrated land use and transport models (LUTI models), give indications for impacts of automated driving on land use by developing different scenarios with assumptions on the transport supply with automated vehicles. Looking at the results and the assumptions made in a detailed manner can help to get insights which kind of utilization of automated vehicles appears to be desirable to existing and future targets in urban and settlement development and the idea of the livable city.
The impact of automated driving in freight transport on the economic landscape
Heike Flamig (Technical University Hamburg, Germany)
Sandra Lunkeit (Technical University Hamburg, Germany)
Automated driving on public infrastructure for freight transport provides opportunities to develop new business models. Changes are likely in the economic landscapes in general and the livability of cities in particular. First of all, the economy has to adapt automated technologies. Since the specification profile for drivers of the automated commercial vehicle vary, the labour market is affected. Consequently, the transfer of goods to the customer (other companies, organisation, and household) has to be re-organized. Companies and policymakers are hoping for positive effects through implementation, such as increased traffic efficiency and safety, fuel savings and reduced emissions, as well as reduced total cost of ownership. However, until now, most of the related research has concentrated on passenger mobility or on freight transport on the long haul.
The aim of this paper is to identify the impact of automated driving in freight transport on the economic landscape, most notably different markets. For doing so, a system dynamics model is developed. It uses empirical data and information from companies as well as statistical data. The simulation reveals interactions of automated driving with all considered markets. For example, the labour market is hit hardest, followed by the trade market and the logistics market and most recently by the property market. In addition, all markets tend to influence each other. Hence using a system dynamics model of automated driving in freight transport helps to identify and to interpret rebound effects. It may also give some hints on how automated driving should be governed.